The Asbury Park Press Editorial Board argues that the election results are a "Nightmare" for the Monmouth GOP. Chairman Puharic says we fought back the tide of the Democrats national success.
Both the APP and Puharic got it wrong.
While Barbara McMorrow's election is historic and significant after 2 decades of all Republican rule, that we won two of three county seats up for grabs is not a nightmare. Operation Bid Rig was a nightmare, and so far we have survived very well.
That Tom Kean Jr carried Monmouth with 53% of the vote disproves Puharic's thesis. The national tide was more of a ripple on Monmouth's shores.
McMorrow's win can be attributed to several factors other than "local voters fed up with corrupt, free-spending, patronage practicing county Republicans." as the APP says. There still are some such Republicans in Monmouth County, but they weren't on the ballot this year.
With no incumbents in the race, McMorrow's victory can be chalked up to name recognition, given that this is her second time out. The APP's endorsement no doubt helped, but was not decisive, as Anna Little's victory proves. The
Republicans ♥ BARBARA McMORROW movement, rumored to be supported by both supporters of Joe DiBella and Lillian Burry, also was a factor. Not that the signs made a difference in and of themselves. They didn't. The signs were demonstrations that Republican support for Andrew Lucas was weak and divided.
That Lucas's support was weak and divided is only in part his own doing. He was selected, by one vote, by the reformers of the party, but then embraced the old guard in the chairman's race and continued to dance with both sides throughout the summer and most of the fall. He failed to identify himself as a reformer to an electorate that is still angry over the culture of corruption exposed by Operation Bid Rig. His weak endorsement of Anna Little's position on the county counsel fiasco came too late to be considered anything but pandering. He tried to cruise in by offending neither side. Not a bad strategy for a rookie, but not enough to carry the day in this environment.
Why would DiBella's support of Lucas be lukewarm? Heck, he lost the nominations to both Freeholder candidates by the thinnest of margins, and McMorrow is from his town. His ticket had a tough race and took a "thumping" in Howell. I'd be surprised to find that he had anything to do with the
♥ signs, but given the circumstances I would not expect him expend a great deal of effort for the county ticket. His appearance at Branches was weird though, especially after what happened in Howell.
Would Burry be behind the
♥ signs? Maybe, but that will have to wait for another post, and the answer may not be apparent until January.
Enough about what didn't work.
What worked and why did Anna Little and Rose Marie Peters win?
Little won because she established herself as a reformer and not part of the old corrupt culture. Her refusal of Fred Neimann's PAC money in the spring and again in October, along with her vote against the rehiring of Malcolm Carton as county counsel, convinced the electorate that she is the real deal. Her independence, which can drive her colleagues crazy, won over the voters, if not the APP who couldn't get beyond how she handled her resignation in Highlands.
Peters won because she is clearly better qualified than Bova-Scarano, because no one really cares about who the Surrogate is, and because neither the APP nor the Democrats made an issue of the her only vulnerability.
Where do we go from here?
As a party we need to unite behind a reform agenda. The Freeholder Board needs to
cut spending and taxes. We can't have anymore county counsel type headlines. The Republican Freeholders need to unite as four reformers, and prevent McMorrow from taking credit for the reforms, otherwise we lose another seat, maybe two next year.
Rob Clifton, who's seat is up next year, needs to firm up his reformer credentials. He made a good start with his county counsel vote, but the Democrats will come after him on the Matawan Train Station next year. He needs to do a great deal more to make that story ancient history and he needs to do it before he faces a convention or primary challenge. The old playbook for a Republican incumbent doesn't work anymore.
The Sheriff is fine and only a major scandal will hurt him. However, he needs to exert more leadership within the party. The Chairmanship was his for the taking and he passed. Our Chairman had a good rookie season, but he is not universally respected and he needs seasoning and guidance. Only the Sheriff can provide that.
If she keeps doing what she's been doing, Freeholder Little will be fine, in which ever race she runs in next year.
The legislative races in the 11th, 12th and 13th districts are frought with danger.
In the 11th, it looks like there will be a primary between Steve Corodemus and Sean Kean. That will leave two open Assembly seats. This should be avoided, and it will require Corodemus to swallow his pride. Wall Township kept Corodemus and Kean in office last year and Wall Township will overwhelmingly vote for Kean, ending Corodemus's legislative career. While Corodemus has seniority and is a better legislator, Kean is a better campaigner and has union support, in addition to Wall. If there is no primary, Kean, Corodemus and Dave Rubell are the winning ticket in another race against well funded rookies. If there is a primary, look for Anna Little to move from Freehold to Trenton in Corodemus's seat, and look for the Democrats to take control in Freehold. Not a good scenario.
In the 12th, Jen Beck
shoud not challenge Senator Trans Fats. It is not worth risking the district entirely. Jen cruises to victory and Declan O'Scanlon can beat the goose defender this time out. We need a well heeled new comer to challenge Karcher. Mayor Kleinberg is a long shot.
In the 13th, Senator Kryillos will have a well funded challenge and the Matawan Train Station will be the issue. If Thompson runs, he wins. Amy Handlin is a lock for re-election.
We remain vulnerable on several levels, but our voters are still Republicans. If we listen to them and respond accordingly we win.
If there are anymore Bid Rig indictments, and there might be, we are in deep doo doo, unless we have a definative break from the past before they hit.
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