The GOP's 12th district's slate of Jennifer Beck, Declan O'Scanlon and Caroline Cassagrande chances of competing on a financially level playing field took a hit yesterday when Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts and Senate President Richard Codey announced that they wanted the 14th district to be the split district to be included in the "Clean Elections" experiment.
The Clean Elections experiment will have 3 legislative districts campaigns being publicly financed. 1 Democratic district, 1 Republican and 1 split. The Democrat and Republican districts don't matter, because they will be "safe" districts for the incumbent party. The legislature might as well pass a law for those districts that forbids the candidates from spending any money, because the incumbent party is going to win anyway.
Theoretically, the split district should be competitive. But the 14th is not competitive. This district, which includes Trenton and is heavily populated by state workers is already locked up by labor friendly Republican Bill Baroni and his team. Baroni had all the state labor unions endorsements prior to his nomination. The Democrats don't even have a full ticket yet, 3 days before the filing deadline. The district will probably stay split with Baroni moving up from the Assembly to the Senate. Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein, who reportedly votes the way Baroni tells her to, will be re-elected. Republican Tom Goodwin, a Hamilton Township Councilman will win Baroni's Assembly seat against his yet to be named competitor. That is how Democrats Codey and Roberts want it. It doesn't matter that 2 seats will be Republican, because those Republicans will have to be de facto members of the Democratic caucus to stay in office in this heavily state union member populated district.
The 12th district, which is mostly in Monmouth County, is competitive. The Democrats biggest advantage is money. When Republicans Jennifer Beck for Senate, Declan O'Scanlon and Caroline Cassagrande are knocking on doors throughout the district, TV ads for Democrats Karcher, Panter and Mallet will be playing in the background as the voters answer their doors.
The 12th was a long time Republican strong hold, with Senator John Bennett and Assembly members Michael Arnone and Claire Farraher representing the district for many years until they were swept out of office in 2003 due to Bennett's over billing problems as Marlboro's township attorney. Beck took back one of the Assembly seats for the GOP in 2005, and O'Scanlon came within 75 votes of taking back the other. Had the Monmouth GOP had its act together with its absentee voter effort, the GOP would probably have taken back both Assembly seats.
There is no way the Democrats are going to let the 12th be a "clean" district. They want to keep the district and their in roads to Monmouth County. Karcher is best known for her opposition to french fries. Panter has the goose vote locked up and Mallet sells pens and golf balls with corporate logos on them. They are going to need those TV and radio ads to win.
Update: Honest Abe has provided a correction in the comments, the 14th does not include Trenton, and some interesting insights of his own in the comments. Thank you Mr. President.
The Legacy of Thomas Lifson
13 hours ago
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4 comments:
Actually, Trenton is in the 15th District, represented by Sen. Shirley Turner and Assemblymembers Bonnie Watson-Coleman and Reed Gusciora, all Democrats. The 1-2 punch of having both Trenton and Princeton in one district makes it well-nigh impossible for a Republican to win there.
The 14th is dominated by Hamilton, which is somewhat competitive politically, but is the power base of the Mercer County GOP. In addition to state workers, Hamilton's population includes a large percentage of Reagan Democrats. Republicans who win in this area tend to be pro-labor and socially conservative, like Chris Smith.
If the Dems want the 14th to be a "Clean Elections" district, count on it being anything but clean. They want Baroni out. He is talked about as a future statewide candidate, and the Democrats worry that he could actually win statewide. They want to prevent this. Couple that with the fact that Greenstain and her team are weak, and I would say something's up. They want to blunt the effectiveness of Baroni's slate so as to take over the 14th, as well as eliminate Baroni as a statewide factor.
This fails the sniff test.
Thank you for the correction and insights Mr. President.
The State Democratic Party has asked Johnny Mathis to explain their position on clean elections:
You ask how much we’re spending.
Must I explain.
We need to win the District
Like pigs need grain.
You ask about clean elections
The fourteenth will do
But in the twelfth, it’s never
We need to bury you.
We don’t want it close, we’ll never let it go
We don’t want it close, we want control from head to toe.
We’ll beat you til the GOP has left the room.
We’ll beat you with an odor that’s not perfume,
We’ll beat you til your party can’t raise a dime
We’ll clean the fourteenth district where no one else can climb
But in the twelfth, it’s never and that's a long long time.
But in the twelfth, it’s never and that’s a long long time
Politics NJ reports that the Dems have nominated union boss Wayne D'Angelo for assembly in the 14th District. Looks like they're trying the same in the 14th as in the 11th - trying to neutralize or win districts represented by pro-labor Republicans, Sean Kean in 11 and Bill Baroni in 14.
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