With two weeks to go until election day, this is how I see things shaking out:
Beck beats Karcher, convincingly, in the 12th Senate race.
O'Scanlon and Panter win in the 12th Assembly races. No recounts.
Republicans sweep the 13th legislative races. Pat Walsh makes an impressive showing and Democrats blame her loss on too much money wasted on Karcher.
In the 11th, Republicans sweep by the largest margins ever in the lowest turnout race ever. The 11th, where the neither party has made much of an effort turns out to be the key to the county races.
Sheriff: Hill by 5+%.
Clerk: Choudary by 2+%*
Both Guadagno and French are hurt by low Republican voter turnout in the 11th, where the top of the ticket is running virtually unopposed. The Jack Hill Lied website backfires on Guadagno and the Absentee mailer backfires on French. Hill, Schueler and D'Amico get their base out to vote in the 11th.
* If Sean Kean and Claire French can get the vote out in Wall, French can save her seat, barely.
Freeholder: Cantor and Schueler. The voters go for the fresh faces.
Adam Puharic will blame the loss on Anna Little.
Bill Barham will try to get Schueler and McMarrow to support him for Director in 2008. It won't work.
Alan Moretti will not start talking to Tommy DeSeno until after the election. Alan's singing will be so good that he will get nominated for a Emmoretty.
The Chairman's race has already started.
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Will there be a cost to run for Chairman? Will Comrade Puharic pony up a cool grand to have HIS background checked?
Really, the only prediction I see a problem with is the Beck win. I don't think that's going to happen. Karcher is strong in the western part of the county, and in Middlesex. And lets not forget Tinton Falls which benefits from the Earle Housing legislation that Panter and Karcher put through. It should be fun times ahead....
Rick,
I would have called the Beck-Karcher race a toss up until I saw Karcher's latest ad this morning. The one that makes an issue out of Beck's losing her license three times for not paying parking tickets. What does that mean, not paying your tickets qualifies one for Attorney General but not Senator?!
Seriously, it is an awful and desparate ad that does more harm to Karcher than it does to Beck. It could even help Beck.
The Dems must have polling data showing Karcher behind if they are resorting to that ad.
But. In Colts Neck will Ken Florek have Ambrosia for dessert? ;รพ
I haven't seen the ad yet...and as far as Colts Neck is concerned...I predict a Florek win with me a close second. I have no illusions and I know that the cards are stacked against me, but hey, they can't go uncontested forever. At least this way they have to spend some money and get some information out to the voters. I think of it as a public service. Also, the more people I can get to vote for me, the more people will come out and vote for the rest of the ticket. I give them a reason to come out and vote. Maybe this way, a recount won't be needed for Mike Panter.
And I do see retirement looming in my future.
The Republicans on the County level should carry the entire ticket, in large part - I forsee - based upon Middletown and Wall, as well as Howell, producing strong Republican turnouts (relatively speaking, in this customarily low turnout year, of course). Republicans getting the entire ticket in helps Puharic maintain the chairmanship should he decide to run for another term.
Otherwise, as for the legislative races, I agree; although I think Karcher loses because she is running on an ethics platform when the people are more interested in the tax and spending policies she has been supporting for four years (the Christmas tree "farm" scam she uses - and Beck's commercial exploiting that fact - arising this close to the elction will have a significant impact).
And, for the Assembly in the 12th, there could be a split ticket; unfortunately I believe many are fooled by Panter's two faced rhetoric (and the turnout in the above towns are outside the 12th).
Last, Barham gets no support for Director because no one wants to Asbury Park Press coming after them for giving that support.
What he said: ^
Hank,
In a normal year,if there is such a thing anymore, I'd be more optimistic about the county race. However, given that there is not much of a legislative race in either the 11th or 13th, I expect a light Republican turnout in most of the county, save the 12th.
I expect the APP will endorse the county races the way I called them.
Its all speculation anyway...there's two weeks left and there's only one poll that counts.
Art,
You are right it is all speculation anyway ... but that's the fun part.
Anyway, you have to look at the local races too, not just the legislature. There should be - as I said - high Republican turnout in Wall (based upon Republicans running as independents against other Republicans running the party line), and there should be a good Republican turnout in Middletown, as well as Howell (both with good organizations to get the vote out, and some big local issues/races to further enhance that effort). In all three of those towns there will not be significant Democrat turnout; and there are some other local races that will impact the result. That will help on the County wide races.
In any event, you are right, it is all speculation and we will see how things unfold. .... Regardless, it should be interesting.
Hank,
You might be right, but I'm not so sure the local races help the county candidates. The in Wall, the Independents are unhappy with both the county and local GOP organization. In Middletown, the Dems won a seat on the township committee for the first time in many years last year and the Republicans took a beating to Republican Independents in Howell last year. With Howell Dem Chair Steve Morlino on the top of the ticket for Senate, Howell is not a lock for the GOP.
It will be interesting.
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