Released by Quinnipiac Polling Institute:
Fueled by a surge of support from white voters, Republican Sen. John McCain has narrowed a 10-point gap and now trails Democratic Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 45 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
This compares to a 51 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in an August 13 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
In this latest survey, white voters back Sen. McCain 56 - 37 percent, up from 50 - 42 percent August 13. Black voters support the Democrat 93 - 7 percent, compared to 94 - 1 percent. Men back McCain 53 - 40 percent, reversing a 48 - 45 percent Obama lead, while women stay with Obama 54 - 38 percent, compared to 53 - 38 percent.
But white women back McCain 50 - 42 percent, compared to 46 - 44 percent for Obama Aug. 13. Independent voters shift from 45 - 42 percent for Obama to 47 - 43 percent for McCain.
The Democrat leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 50 - 43 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain leads 52 - 41 percent among voters over 55 years old.
"The McCain-Palin ticket has narrowed the gap dramatically, but it will take more than this post convention bounce for the Republicans to win in true blue New Jersey. The upcoming debates probably will provide a clue to whether Sen. McCain can build on his current momentum, or whether the tide will turn back to the Democrats," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
More than a quarter of all voters and more than a third of independent voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that the presidential debates will change their minds about who they will vote for.
New Jersey likely voters give Obama a 56 - 34 percent favorability rating, compared to 56 - 35 percent for McCain.
Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential candidate, gets a 42 - 32 percent favorability, with 25 percent saying they don't know enough about her to form an opinion. Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden gets a 48 - 25 percent favorability, with 26 percent who say they don't know enough about him.
New Jersey voters say 58 - 33 percent that McCain's selection of Palin was a good choice. Obama's selection of Biden was a good choice, voters say 59 - 30 percent.
The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 51 percent of New Jersey voters say, while 13 percent list the war in Iraq; 10 percent cite terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy.
Obama understands the economy better than McCain, voters say 48 - 43 percent, but McCain better understands foreign policy, voters say 64 - 27 percent.
Voters say 32 - 28 percent that they will be better off if Obama is elected. But 54 percent of voters say their taxes will go up if Obama is elected, compared to 34 percent who expect a tax hike if McCain is elected.
And 44 percent believe McCain's claim that Obama will raise taxes on most American families, while 40 percent believe Obama's claim that he will cut taxes for 95 percent of working families.
"In addition to the Palin bounce, Republicans seem to be scoring points with their attacks on the Obama tax plan," Richards said.
From September 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,187 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
A Senate of Benedict Arnolds
15 hours ago
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As of now ... I think McCain / Palin will do VERY well in Monmouth County ... which would greatly help the R's in the local contests.
CNN POLL OF POLLS: Obama up in New Jersey
(CNN) — A new CNN poll of polls suggests that Barack Obama has a 7 point lead over John McCain in battle for New Jersey and its 15 electoral votes.
The CNN poll of polls is an average of the latest public opinion surveys. The latest New Jersey edition consists of a Quinnipiac University poll conducted September 10-14, a Monmouth University/Gannett survey taken September 11-14, and a Research 2000 poll conducted September 9-11.
When averaged together, 49 percent of likely New Jersey voters say Obama is their choice for president, with 42 percent backing McCain. Nine percent are undecided.
John McCain hasn't attended an event in New Jersey since May.
How come you aren't telling the whole story Art....and it NJ is "in play", why does the McCain campaign think so little of us that he hasn't been here in 4 months?
He was here a month ago.
McCain was here last month for a fundraiser, his wife made a campaign stop though.
I believe they were trying to do a campaign stop for him as well, but they ran into schedule problems and the always happening delays.
When was the last time Obama made a campaign stop in NJ?
Before the primary...
Yeah Art, Barak Obama was just in New Jersey this month to show how much he cares about the voters of our state, at least those who can afford to pay $28,000.00 a head.
Lugar96
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