Michael Shapiro makes the case that New Jersey Democrats are vulnerable in next year's gubernatorial and legislative elections at InTheLobby.
Shapiro's analysis is on the mark, but ironically is not a cause for optimism among Republicans nor the the general public that is fed up with the Democrats' governance coming out of Trenton.
Despite their spectacularly low approval ratings, the Democrats have to be favored to retain control of the governors office and the legislature next year. Not because New Jersey is a hopelessly blue state. Rather, because there is no serious opposition. If past is prologue, there is little indication that the NJ GOP has the ability or desire to take down the Democrats.
Here's why:
1)Republicans have not demonstrated that we will offer a clear message or real change. New Jersey's government is fundamentally flawed. Rotten to the core. It is bloated, corrupt and run by the big cities, the government worker's unions and the NJEA. Government is working fabulously for the unions, cities and the NJEA. The NJ GOP has not demonstrated that it has the courage or integrity to take these interests on. They don't believe they can win if they run against the NJEA, the unions or the cities. Yet they have demonstrated that they can't win by appeasing them or dancing around them.
2)Money. Jon Corzine can spend $100 million or more of his own money to win. The Republicans don't have a known candidate who can do that. Without a clear message, the NJ GOP won't be able to raise the kind of money it will take to compete. Dick Zimmer couldn't do it and he had a very vulnerable opponent who won convincingly without campaigning.
3)No end game. All Republican activist will work hard during the primary. The losers will pay lip service to the winner, pledge their support and then go home. Democrats don't do this. They unite and fight to win the general election and then fight with each other while in power. That is why they always beat us.
Steve Lonegan has a message. He will take on the unions, cities and NJEA. But he does not have establishment support. He will attempt to win the nomination the same way Brett Schundler did in 2001, through the grass roots and bypassing the establishment. If he wins the nomination, it is predictable that the establishment will give him the same lukewarm support they gave Schundler, yielding the same result.
U.S Attorney Chris Christie already has the establishment's support. Yet we don't know what his message will be.
If he chooses to run for governor he will probably win the nomination. If he crafts a message of real reform, means and sells it, he can probably beat Corzine. The Democrats will run against him in NJ like they ran against John McCain nationally. They will exploit his ties to George Bush and John Ashcroft, which are considerable. Yet if he has a Gingrich type platform, means it, stays on message and keeps selling it, he could squeak out a victory, if his primary opponents and their supporters work as hard for him as the establishment does.
If Christie chooses not to run, the establishment will probably turn to John Crowley.
Crowley has a compelling personal life story. A made for Hollywood story, literally. He has money. He and Bill Spadea are building a grassroots organization. He burst onto the scene last spring as a possible U.S. Senate candidate. He wasn't ready then and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to run in a statewide race next year. He has the potential to be a Republican superstar, in NJ and nationally, if he choses that path. But, we don't yet know what his message is or if the timing is right for him to make a career change.
It will not matter who the Republican gubernatorial candidate is unless the NJ GOP transforms itself and unites. As Mike Halfacre said yesterday, "Republicans need to stop fighting over whether to move the party to the “center” or to the “right”, and instead move the party forward." A smash mouth primary followed by a general election campaign with only half the team on the field will lead to the same old results we've become accustomed to.
Doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result is insanity.
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12 comments:
Honestly, does anyone really care what Mike Halfacre has to say?
Honestly, yes.
Hi Art.
Read your posting today (and Mike Halfacre’s). There’s a lot I agree with there! We do have a tremendous opportunity in ’09 and shame on us if we do not rise to the occasion. I am optimistic (I have to be, otherwise I don’t belong in this job!). The truth, as again demonstrated in this last election, is that the top of the ticket often defines the environment and the context. Regular people who don’t spend their days thinking about government or politics don’t vote for parties, they vote for candidates. It will be our gubernatorial nominee who sets the tone and context for our Party next year. Having principles that guide you is very important, but how those principles are articulated through the specific policies you advocate is even more important for the average voter. I, too, hope that we can unite behind the cause of winning and that all who wish to see the winds of change blow through Trenton will commit themselves to a cause greater than their own self-interest. The folks you identified as potential candidates are all good, smart, principled and dedicated people who have something very significant to bring to the Party. Each would undoubtedly be better than Corzine. We can and must strive to deliver an effort that is coordinated, consistent, coherent, and connects with those who will vote. We must focus not on our differences as Republicans, but on that which unites us. When the differences between candidates in a primary are less significant or perceptible, we often end up making our primary about things that are equally less significant to general election voters and lose the opportunity to focus on and drive our core message. Let us hope and commit ourselves to seeing that such is not the case in 2009.
Tom Wilson
NJGOP
150 W. State St.
Suite 230
Trenton, NJ 08608
(609)989-7300 (ph)
(609) 989-8685 (fax)
A few thoughts:
Let's give New Jersey voters some credit - They know how to seperate elections.
If Christie runs and wins in the primary, there is no doubt the Dems will come at him for Bush connections and Ashcroft. Corzine's dogs Pallone and Pascrell have already been working at this for a while.
Chris Christie has name recognition, not a lot, but he does have more then most do. He also has a well defined reputation that people will get to know. The Dems will try and define it, but I don't think it'll work well.
It didn't work when Democrats tried to peg state Republicans with Bush in 2007. People will groan at hearing Bush brought up and any Republican can deflect it by stating the truth: it's a distraction, bush is long gone, this is an election about the direction of our state and a mandate on the rule of Corzine the past four years.
Making unions THE issue will not work. I have many thoughts on how to approach that situation that I'll keep to myself, but I do know that if the Republican Gubernatorial nominee makes that the major issue of the campaign, they will lose.
We need to make sure each nominee we present in the primary has solid economic plans because we know Corzine (or whoever) will as well. The unaffordability of this state needs to be a major issue.
Here is my concern and you mentioned it:
Our primary will no doubt develop into a tough fight as they almost always do. Lines should be drawn on the attacking though, I do not want to see a repeat of Murray Sabrin's campaign again. Those kind of attacks will lead to a fractured party no matter what and the classic lip service but no work towards campaign. If it's Christie v. Lonegan, Lonegan supporters CAN NOT blame the "establishment" if their candidate loses. We all need to remember that primary voters are the ones with the say and they will jump the county lines if they are given enough of a reason to.
They did it with Schundler. I wasn't really around in 05' but I can assure you that if the "non-establishment" candidate wins, that I and others will push for a untied party behind that candidate no matter what. We can't afford to do this any year, let alone a very important oppurtunity like next year. But I can't be the only one on this page, especially if it ends up where the "establishment" candidate wins the primary.
This does not mean I have a candidate I am backing, as only has announced so far. But, your right history can not be repeated. Whoever wins the primary, we must all push and pull for unity and make sure everyone else is on board with us. I promise that I will do this, regardless of who I chose to personally support. Everyone else should promise this as well, end of story.
Geeze, and I'd thought I'd get to enjoy the holidays before getting into the Gubernatorial race already :).
correction - Schundler year was 2001, not 2005..I got my years mixed up. I definately wasn't around in 2001..haha.
Mr. Wilson, it appears as though you are agreeing with Art calling your - and the NJGOP - leadership a failure. Art said "If past is prologue, there is little indication that the NJ GOP has the ability or desire to take down the Democrats." And I guess you also agree with Art when he says "NJ GOP has not demonstrated that it has the courage or integrity to take these interests on" (meaning the NJEA and the unions. It doesn't sound like Art has high regards for what you are doing ... but glad you are in agreement.
Also, Mr. Wilson, you say "I, too, hope that we can unite behind the cause of winning and that all who wish to see the winds of change blow through Trenton will commit themselves to a cause greater than their own self-interest." ... It will be nice to see you get behind Mr. Lonegan and the people whose only cause is taking back the state for the taxpayers and being an alternative to Democrats. Hopefully after Lonegan wins the nomination the establishment Art refers to won't do they same thinig they did to Schundler as Art describes and this way Republicans can support Lonegan so we can win a general election .... with all Republicans united.
It seems as though Lonegan is the only one who has been standing for an alternative to the Democrats, someone who has not only been standing for lower taxes, smaller government, less debt, and less government control over our lives, but he actually has the record and credibility of having enacted those principles as mayor.
Christie's issue of corruption - as we have seen in the past - cannot win a state wide election, and you are correct Art when you poiint out the attacks that will be put against him. Democrats aren't the only corrupt party and trying to draw a distinction between Democrats and Republicans on that issue cannot be done .... so it is a loser.
Hopefully everyone will recognize this and join his effort. Republicans will only win when they have someone with credibility on these issues as their candidate - and a candidate who brings everyone to the table who everyone, no matter their primary issue, can support - and the only potential candidate on that is Lonegan. .... Please run Steve!
anonymous 6:18 PM...
Will you rally around Christie if he is the nominee?
Who knew, the candidate not yet running (Christie) already had a campaing issue (corruption)?
Just because that's his area of expertise as a US Attorney does not mean that he's going to make that the major issue in his campaign, if he runs.
It's also an issue that shouldn't be ignored either..just because it doesn't translate into electoral success doens't mean we say that the corruption in this state is perfectly acceptable.
Hey, who wants to take bets on who announces first: Lonegan or Christie? Did Lonegan announce already and I miss it? I got a buck on Lonegan announcing first.
I will give the straight forward yes. Now I hope that those who are supporting Christie (even though he isn't a candidate and can't even talk about being a candidate because that would be a violation of his current position and constraints) will make the same unequivocal answer that they will support Lonegan when he wins.
If you want to know exactly how the Democrats took control of the County Freeholders this year, look no further than Manalapan where the Manalapan Republican Chairman made a deal to keep Republicans from voting on local elections. You can read all the details at datruthsquad.blogspot.com.
Oxley had better wake up and realize he lost control of the County Freeholders by doing nothing about McEnery in Manalapan. He had the opportunity to step in; he had the power to step in; he knew exactly what was going on. He did nothing. The County loss is on him for not getting involved in Manalapan.
Regarding the question of whether we'll rally around Christie if he's nominated... Of course, we'll probably rally around anybody running against Corzine. The question is whether any of Corzine supporters will join.
Chris Christie may not be as popular as you think. There are a lot of people who think he just grabbed a few headlines and really dropped the ball on a lot of corruption that he could have done something about and never did. Manalapan comes to mind. Not only is the local government one of the most corrupt in the state -- and has been for several years -- but it's WMUA, where executive director Frank Abate went to prison, had 12 million dollars simply disappear and the commission chairman is walking around scot-free. They have a mayor who was tied to John Lynch and killed a multimillion dollar ratable to protect Lynch's shopping center down the road. There are a dozen other stories that are being ignored by Christie. Christie is not popular in towns like Manalapan where they don't think he's doing his job, and he's just grabbing headlines.
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