Lonegan campaign strategist Rick Shaftan has been quoted as saying that Jon Corzine has never run against a candidate like Steve Lonegan and that he doesn't know how to beat Steve Lonegan.
Lonegan's weird behavior makes the first part of that premise true. Few, if any, have ever run against a student council president like candidate in a state wide taxpayer funded race. My apologies to high school politicos.
However, Corzine and the Democrats know how to beat Lonegan in November. That is why they will be spending money over the next few weeks to help Lonegan win the GOP nomination.
Should Lonegan win the GOP nomination, this is how Corzine will beat him.
1) He will employ a "rose garden" strategy and refuse to engage Lonegan. Lonegan will whine about it, but Corzine won't fall into the same trap that Christie did and engage Lonegan on his turf. Corzine will not be taking state funds to finance his campaign. There will be no legal requirement that he debate Lonegan. Corzine won't debate Lonegan.
2) Corzine will blame New Jersey's problems on the economy and say he is working to fix the economy from the "rose garden." The Obama administration will bail Corzine out with federal money.
3) In October, Corzinecrats will fill the air waves with ads that say Lonegan will raise your taxes, restrict a woman's right to choose and ban billboards written in Spanish. If a second round of ads is necessary, they will say that Lonegan will dismantle the best public education system in the country.
4) On election day, he will spend a couple of million dollars on the ground making sure that there is a huge turnout in Democratic strongholds.
He will win by at least 10% and go on to a second term with the wind in his sails as he imposes his radical socialists agenda on New Jersey.
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3 comments:
I recently started reading these blogs as I have become more involved with local candidates in my town. You all over think this stuff. I don't think Christie or Lonegan will beat Corzine for the reasons you state in your posting directed at Lonegan. The democrats will get out the vote. The republicans will talk about needing to get out the vote at their republican only events.
Art,
You forgot a whole lot of other attacks they would launch on him.
If the internals were close, Corzine would attack him...he's very used to negative campaigns.
He's got the money to microtarget as well, so here's what you would say:
In Obama strongholds, ads where anything on record Lonegan said about Obama, socialist, radical, you name it. Because it's a genius idea to constantly publicly attack the guy who's at near 70% approval rating in this state when your running for statewide office.
In Hunterdon County, ads where Lonegan calls Leonard Lance a "lapdog".
In Union/District 21 area; ads where Lonegan calls Tom Kean, Jr. a "lapdog"
In Chris Smith's CD (where he wins 66% of the vote): Ads where Lonegan called smith "more liberal" than Specter.
In District 39/Bergen County: Ads where Lonegan said Cardinale "Sold Out".
In hispanic communities: Lonegan wanted to ban Spanish billboards.
In Northwest NJ/conservative areas: Lonegan hired two Illegal Immigrants.
I mean not only will Corzine turn out the Obama vote, he'll pick up a bunch of republicans too, maybe they won't for him but moderate leaning ones/strong backers of Republicans Lonegan slammed (which leaves about 3 GOP elected officials left in the state that Lonegan didn't attack) will stay at home or vote Daggett.
You can't keep pissing on everyone except your base and expect to gain votes.
Chris Christie is not a conservative republican. Chris Smith is a liberal republican. The Christine Todd Whitman years were a disaster and I am ashamed of the moderate republican establishment in this state. What is the difference between RINOs like Smith, Whitman, and Christie and Corzine? Christie will go down to defeat to Corzine.
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