Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Christie's Lead Down To 4%

A Quinnipiac poll released this morning indicates that Jon Corzine has closed the gap in the NJ gubernatorial race to 4%. Chris Christie's lead has fallen from 10% in a September 1 poll.
Today's poll gives Christie a 43%-39% lead over Corzine, with 12% for Daggett. The September 1 poll was 47%-37% Christie, with 9% for Daggett.

With name recognition of only 16%, Daggett is more popular than Jesus among people who know who he is.

The biggest shift in the electorate has been among women. In the September 1 poll, Christie led Corzine 43%-39%, with 10% for Daggett. 29 days later, women break for Corzine 43%-37% with 13% for Daggett.

Among Independent Likely voters, Daggett has maintained support of 16% of the respondents, while Corzine's support grew from 30% to 32% in September. Christie's support dropped from 46% to 45% with Independents.

Going into tomorrow's televised debate, the race is Christie's to win or lose. 55% of the voters reject Corzine, yet Christie's run out the clock strategy may not be enough to win the election. Christie must win back women voters while somehow convincing Daggett supporters that a vote for Daggett is a vote for Corzine.

Daggett introduced a plan to reduce property taxes by 25% yesterday. The plan increases sales and income taxes, while capping municipal spending and punishing the residents of towns who don't control municipal spending enough. Daggett's plan is not a reform. It is a shuffle. However Christie has refused to explicitly address property taxes, despite numerous polls indicating that these taxes are the voters number 1 concern.

With 34 days to go, Christie needs to reveal the flaws in Daggett's plan while convincing voters that he gets it about property taxes and will reform New Jersey's governments, if not revealing a specific plan of his own.

Or, he can keep fighting with Corzine for the women's vote.

Tune into tomorrow's debate for a preview of the rest of the race.

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