A Monmouth University/Gannett poll released this morning indicates that Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine among likely voters 47%-39%. Chris Daggett is favored by 5% of the respondents.
The gubernatorial race is essentially tied among registered voters, 41% Corzine to 40% for Christie, 6% Daggett and 11% undecided.
“A Republican holding a steady poll lead is unprecedented in recent New Jersey elections and this shouldn’t be discounted. But the results also indicate there is a lot of churning in this electorate. Despite the incumbent’s continued unpopularity, there is still a sense that anything can happen,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Murray concluded that the discrepancy between the likely voters and registered voters indicates a lack of enthusiasm for Corzine. “We know that voters who are less likely to go to the polls tend to be somewhat more Democratic in their leanings. However, we rarely see more than a few points difference in the ballot test results for all registered voters compared with just likely voters. The fact that such a notable discrepancy has shown up in two consecutive polls indicates that there is a decided lack of enthusiasm for the incumbent among the Garden State electorate. While we acknowledge that most of these ‘unlikely’ voters will never cast a ballot in this race, if the Corzine team can bump up turnout on Election Day by just a few percentage points, their chances of victory greatly increase."
Read the entire poll release here: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP28_1.pdf