Monday, November 02, 2009

Survey USA-WABC:Christie 45%, Corzine 42%, Daggett 10%

Another poll another result.

Safe bet...Tuesday will be a late night.


TR said...

final tally
Christie 50%
Corzine 45%
Daggett 5%

DavidE said...

PPP, a Democratic polling firm shows Christie with a 6% lead. I believe that PPP bases a lot of that lead on the fact that the Republicans are excited to be voting for Christie (or against Corzine) whereas the Democrats are unenthusiastic about voting for Corzine.

PPP says that 60% of Christie's voters are enthusiastic about voting whereas only 34% of Corzine's voters are enthusiastic. If enthusiastic voters make it to the polls 100% of the time and unenthusiastic voters make it to the polls 95% of the time, then this is a huge edge for Chris Christie.

PPP correctly predicted small Obama victories in NC and Indiana. Those predictions were probably based on the obvious - Obama had a much more enhusiastic base than John McCain.

But I don't think you can underestimate enthusiasm especially when the election is held after a late World Series game that kept people in NJ up late.