Thursday, February 14, 2008

One primary down, one to go. The June primary could be where the action is.

New Jersey had its first meaningful Presidential primary in years last week. There was little drama as Senator John McCain easily won New Jersey’s delegates to the Republican National Convention and Senator Hillary Clinton easily won the delegates to the Democratic Convention.

The June primary is shaping up to be dramatic, at least for the Republicans, statewide and especially in Monmouth County. In addition to electing a President this year, New Jersey voters will also elect a United States Senator. Democratic Senator Frank Lautenberg, who is older than the Highlands-Sea Bright Bridge, is running for re-election.

So far the Republican candidates for the Senatorial nomination are Anne Estabrook from Spring Lake, a real estate developer with lots of money and the former Chairwoman of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce, State Senator “Jersey Joe” Pennacchio, a dentist from Morris County who had a catchy jingle in campaign last fall that you might have heard on the radio, and Murray Sabrin of Fort Lee, a professor at Ramapo State College, Chairman of the New Jersey for Ron Paul campaign and a one time Libertarian candidate for Governor. Despite Lautenberg’s low poll numbers, no one except the Republican candidates themselves think any of them stand a chance against Lautenberg. This race was set to be a snoozer.

Last week, on the same day that Mitt Romney withdrew from the race for the GOP Presidential nomination, Monmouth GOP Chairman Adam Puharic suggested that his mentor, State Senator Joe Kyrillos, enter the U.S. Senate race. “If Joe Kyrillos got in the race, it would be a game-changing event for New Jersey politics,” Puharic told Politickernj.com, a website that caters to political insiders and junkies. Kyrillos, who is much younger than the Highlands-Sea Bright Bridge, was the chairman of the Romney campaign in NJ.

Puharic is right. If Kyrillos gets in the race, it will change the primary game statewide, and especially in Monmouth County. If he can raise significant money, Kyrillos has a better chance against Lautenberg than the three already in the race.

At this late stage, Kyrillos will probably only get in if he can convince Anne Estabrook to bow out in his favor. Word on the street is that Pennacchio is in the race till the end, and that his campaign is looking for Freeholder candidates to join him on his ballot line, especially in Monmouth County. Sabrin will be in the race till the end, but will probably not be a factor.

The Monmouth GOP remains divided, as it has been since 2005 when Freeholder Ed Stominski was thrown off the ticket for re-election in a meeting of the party elite, including Kyrillos, at Judith Stanley-Coleman’s farm. Since then the party has been rocked by scandal and infighting, is on its third chairman and has seen its control of the county government slip from a 5-0 Freeholder majority to 3-2.

The seats of Freeholders Bill Barham and Lillian Burry are on the ballot this year, and a contested primary was likely as neither incumbent wants to run with the other. However, Barham bowed out last week, making a contested Freeholder primary less likely.

Less likely, but still probable. If Kyrillos doesn’t run for Senate, Puharic will probably award the party line to Estabrook. Freeholder candidates who don’t win the party line may be lured to join Pennacchio, whose campaign is being managed by for Monmouth GOP Executive Director Dan Gallic. If Kyrillos does run, and Estabrook stays in the race, there could be three Freeholder tickets in the primary. Estabrook’s campaign manager Mark Duffy has run several campaigns in Monmouth County. He can offer Freeholder candidates the best funded campaign.

Of course, it is possible that the Monmouth GOP will unite behind Kyrillos and there will be a boring uncontested primary for Freeholder. That will take a great deal of smoozing and soothing on Kyrillos’s part. His protégé Puharic flunked Dale Carnegie and is not up to that task on uniting the party at this point.

Whatever happens, it will be more entertaining than reality TV.

Also published in The Courier

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I never thought I would see this day, but your party is starting to make us Dems look downright organized!

Go figure.