By Thomas DeSeno, Esq.
The voter turnout in Asbury Park last Tuesday was muscular. So too for Monmouth’s other Urban districts, Neptune and Long Branch. If all those voters stay involved, Monmouth County politics has just gone Cosmopolitan.
Populations always increase though, so voter turnout records always get shattered. What you really need to track is “percentage change” and a political party’s margin of victory.
Despite the campaign of “Change” across America, the percentage of voters to registered voters may have stayed about the same. In New Jersey the percentage may have gone down. The only explanation I have is phony registrations.
Excuse me I have to sneeze…Ah…Ah…Ah…ACORN!!!!!! Sniff. Excuse me.
Ok, let’s look at some numbers as reported in the Asbury Park Press.
You want to see real change? Take a look at Asbury Park. In their last council election in 2005, when voters in the City were very engaged, about 2000 people voted. On Tuesday, more than 5000 voted.
That’s a 150% increase in voter turnout. Go Blue Bishops! (I know it’s a strange name for a High School football team, but we are State Champs and on a 17 game win streak).
Obama won Asbury Park, 4,563 to 512. A 4,051 margin win for the Democrat.
Now, I know your knee-jerk reaction will be that it was just an Obama bump – it won’t show up in County races. Well, don’t rely on your knee for advice.
Approximately 1000 in Asbury Park didn’t vote in the Freeholder race. They were likely the Obama bump. In the Freeholder race, the Democrats won Asbury Park by about 3,500 to 500. A margin of victory of 3,000 votes. A 7 to 1, Kevin Boss pancake block.
Why is that so intriguing? Asbury Park Democrats just sacked Wall Township Republicans. Republicans rely on a big margin of victory in Wall to win races, holding our breath until their numbers show up on election night.
On Tuesday Republican Freeholder candidates won Wall Township by 3000 votes – which were completely canceled by Asbury Park’s 3000 vote margin for the Democrats. That hasn’t happened before in our voting lifetimes.
Did Republican Freeholder candidates win big in Middletown and Howell? Sure – and both were kept close to the line of scrimmage by the 5,700 vote margin Democrats won in Neptune.
You can throw away also the 2200 vote Republican win in Colts Neck, because Long Branch tackled them in the backfield with 300 votes to spare.
Welcome to the New World Order. Three Democrat towns, Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch, population 79,000, neutered four Republican towns, Wall Township, Middletown, Howell and Colts Neck, population 158,000.
We already know this may have cost of us control of the Freeholder Board for the first time in a quarter century, since Republican John Curley is down 18 votes going into the provisional vote count.
If you think that’s scary, consider this: Asbury Park, Neptune and Long Branch, who just gave the Democrats a 12,200 vote margin of victory to Obama, are all in the same State Legislative District – the fightin’ 11th. Wall Township won’t have Middletown, Howell and Colts Neck to help fend them off in those races.
If you are a Republican living anywhere, and you care at all about the names Kean, Rible and Angelini, you’d be wise to donate to them and work for them. I’m certain when George Norcross sees these numbers he’s going to paint a giant Camden County/Union Money bulls-eye on the 11th District. He’s done it before.
Let me wax on about Asbury Park for a moment. County Committee is a man and woman from each voting district in a town. So where do voting districts come from?
Voter turnout. When I grew up in Asbury Park, we had 18 Districts and 36 County Committee votes in each party. That kind of muscle rivals today’s Wall Township or Manalapan in County Committee. Today we are down to 9 districts, but if Asbury Park keeps pumping voting booth iron, they can get more districts and be big like that again.
Will this help Asbury Park in the ultimate analysis? Just the opposite.
Asbury is non-partisan and votes in May. Two reasons they get ignored. Worse than that for Asbury is the huge Democrat margins. Republicans saw Asbury Park as a lost cause and Democrats saw them as a done deal when Asbury voted 3 to 1 Democrat. Now that they may be 7 or 9 to 1 Democrat, no one will cater to them. Here’s a tip Asbury: Only when a town is competitive do both parties shine that town’s shoes.
So the Republican task is clear: We’d better do something to compete in Monmouth’s Urban Centers. Just so you know, that doesn’t mean an African American “outreach” program that says, “Hi Black people! Remember Abe Lincoln?”
They are going to want to see policy, just like any other voter. If we’re smart, that can benefit us beyond just votes.
Consider this. A few years back our County cut Middletown a $12 million check to buy open spaces. That money is gone and we won’t see any revenue from the investment.
For $1 million more, the County could have bought the Redevelopment rights to Asbury Park’s entire beachfront – 56 acres. The developer who did I estimate stands to make as much as $100 million back from selling off the properties.
We need a global plan for the whole county, West to East. We want the West to stay rural and suburban. Buying open spaces keeps people from moving there, so buying open space there is good.
That means though people will move to our Urban Cities, and those Cities need some money to build vertically. If every time the County peels off open space money to the West they also peel off some Urban development money to the East, everyone wins, and every loves us.
You know, there was a guy who tried to get the Republican Freeholder nod a few years back who very presciently warned we needed to be on the ground in our Cities building a structure. Anyone remember that smart guy’s name? :-)
To bring the message of our policy to the Cities, we need a Freeholder candidate who is a messenger our Cities know and trust. Allow me to suggest Neptune City Mayor Tom Arnone, former Neptune Mayor Tom Catley and Long Branch Councilman Anthony Giordano.
The best way to weather a gathering storm is to prepare for it.
Thomas DeSeno, Esq. is an attorney in Asbury Park who contributes to the FoxNews Forum and MoreMonmouthMusings. He was a candidate for Freeholder at the 2006 Monmouth GOP conventions.
The Healey Mirage
17 hours ago
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23 comments:
Tom, unfortunatley while you are trying to advance the party and Republican ideals, people like our current director are busy advancing themselves and "legally" hiring their friends. You hit near the problem, our current system allows the chairman/women of each town to use their positions to try to advance themselves. They wield too much power and spend all of their time trying to crush and Republicans in their town that disagree with them, instead of building the party ala Reagan. Keep up the fight but unless the party bosses change there is little hope.
DeSeno is an armchair quarterback.
So was Tom Landry. Sometimes the person calling the plays is better at it then the person executing the plays.
Tommy,
Your analysis is off...
In 2007, a perfect year to measure dedicated voter turnout, Wall was at 45%. Asbury Park City was a pathetic 19%. That is the lowest turnout of any town in the 11th district in 2007, the next closest are Long Branch and Deal with 26%. If you want to use a Gubernatorial year, go back to 2005 when Asbury Park's turnout was 33%, compared to Wall's which was 54%. Only this time, Asbury Park is saved by Keansburg at 32% for lowest voter turn out, this time in the entire county of Monmouth though. The next closest number is Deal at 39%.
I'm not saying that Republicans shouldn't completely write off the urban towns of Monmouth County, especially during presidential years. But don't tell me just 1000 was the obama bump, others on the obama bump just voted down the line.
Cutting a check to the city won't really help them either. Again don't ignore the urban areas, engage them, but I wouldn't spend all the time there when the towns with much higher turnout in every single election year are also crucial. I wouldn't call Middletown a "republican" town either.
If Asbury Park really wants to gain more attention, tell some more folks to actually turnout though..that'll wake up everyone. Democrats always try to make plays in the 11th using the Asbury Park, Long branch, urban line..but these towns just don't show up in non-presidential years. Prove me wrong next year.
Eric,
Listen son, if you want to talk about trends you need to go back further than last year.
I worked on Narozanick's campaign in 1986. In those days we used to order November's victory champagne in the spring, on the same day we picked our candidates.
This week we might have lost control of the board completely. That "trend" didn't start Tuesday. That started a couple years ago when McMorrow won.
That's the trend that matters, pal.
If the conclusion you came to after Tuesday was that Republican's "shouldn't completely write off" the Cities then I hope you aren't drawing up our next county wide plan.
The lingo we need right now is that we should be looking to write the Cities in.
The politics of winning elections aside, what's wrong with making a better Monmouth County? That's supposed to be the goal of the Republicans we elect.
No one wants multitudes of people moving to high rise towers in the middle of Freehold, Howell and Colts Neck, do they?
No. So help the Cities build those structures in the east, so folks can live there.
Everyone wins.
As we say over wine and provolone cheese in my house:
You got a problem with that?
Tommy,
Listen Old Man,throwing money at a problem doesn't fix it either. I just drove by Neptune the other day and couldn't help but notice the gigantic structure they call a highschool paid with Abbott funded money.
Nothing against building solid infrastructure and keeping everything up to date, but I went to a high school that didn't look like it belonged on the grounds of some prestigous private university and I turned out fine (I think, anyway)
All the fancy new buildings and throwing money to cities seems to benefit those with connections to whom controls the town, I bet you a pretty penny that some contractor made a fortune off that Neptune High School deal.
But it seems that it has not resulted in an improvement in the quality of life for the people living in the time. They are the one's being bought and sold by the Democrat party that their success depends on government programs, when in truth it works for the Democrats benefit to keep the poor in the income class they are in.
Republicans do need to write-in these urban areas and go in there with the ideals of economic oppurtunity and better school-choice and employment ideas. But I don't think we just toss em' a check and say here build up some better looking buildings and walk away.
Nothing wrong with making a better Monmouth County, but right now we have to look at ways of doing that without costing taxpayers any money and throwing money at a problem without any accountability and standards for positive results.
Eric,
Listen youngster, if your argument is "Throwing money at a problem doesn't work" then I'll ask that next time, you go a little deeper with your analysis than mere cliche.
When the County gave a $12 million check to Middletown to buy open spaces, was that "Throwing money at a problem?"
Were those Middletown folks accepting some sort of welfare?
How about the millions of County tax dollars that went to buy open spaces in Howell?
Are all those nice Republicans a bunch of welfare queens in your book?
I don't think you are going to win many elections in Monmouth County if you don't keep our rural areas rural, and our suburban areas suburban.
That wasn't "throwing money at the the problem" so cut the cliche.
If you support open space spending, then you have to be responsible and realize that designating open spaces keeps people from moving in, and drives up land values (that's the goal of it).
Will all the people we are keeping out of Western Monmouth be moving in with you then?
Responsible government will recognize the imbalance that government is creating. Let's be smart and beat the Democrats to the solution.
IN FURTHERANCE of our open space policy in the West, we need to support density housing in the East.
The two go hand in hand. They compliment each other. Do both or do neither.
Now, let's you and I talk about Abbott Districts.
Asbury Park gets $60 million yearly in Abbott funds. It is per capita the most expensive Abbott in the state.
The district includes rich white towns like Avon, Allenhurst, Interlaken and Deal.
In 1996 they started busing the rich white kids past Asbury up to Red Bank Regional, another public high school about 6 or 7 miles away.
That CREATED Asbury as an Abbott district by segregating just the poorest black kids in the county to one school.
Here is a typical conversation I have with people from the rich towns surrounding Asbury:
RICH WHITE GUY: You know Tom, I resent having to send Asbury $60 million in Abbott funds from my tax money each year.
ME: If you stop busing your kids away and put them back in their home district in Asbury, then Asbury will lose its Abbott designation, and you won't have to pay it anymore.
RICH WHITE GUY: You know Tom, on second thought, why don't you just keep that $60 million.
Listen grasshopper, I'm going to teach you a dirty little secret about Abbotts, that the liberal press won't tell you:
Abbott money in Asbury, is "segregation hush money." Both sides of it are guilty.
White people will complain about the money, but won't change anything because they don't want their kids back in Asbury.
Black people will complain about the segregation, but they won't change it either, because wasting $60 million a year in other people's money is just way too much fun!
Meanwhile, Asbury kids are caught in the middle, attending a racially segregated school (and they know it), created by busing white kids away from their home district, as if Brown v Board of Education never happened.
There is a government caused racially segregated school right here where you live, Eric. Just like they had in the segregated south.
You seem to me to be a decent fellow, so I'm betting that deep down, that troubles you on a moral level.
If this were the 1960's, activists would be parachuting in here to stop a school segregated by government action.
Where are the 1960's-style liberal activists in the mold of Bobby Kennedy to stop it? Today they are too concerned about polar bears to even know there is segregation in their own county.
Where are the Republican activists like Martin Luther King, Jr? Surely a Republican in his mold would complain of a racially segregated school. What issue is so important today that it keeps them from this one?
So I'll tell you, like I tell all the people that don't want to face the segregation question underpinning Abbott districts:
Complain about Abbott money all you want - just don't be late with my $60 million check.
In fact, get a second job if you have to, Eric, but do not be late with my $60 million check.
I'll be surfing.
I think I learned my lesson to stay away from arguing with Mr. DeSeno...
Good job sir, you are a solid spokesperson from your city.
There is a government caused racially segregated school right here
Counselor,
Could there be a Federal Civil Rights lawsuit in the making here?
It would make you more famous than the Abbot lawyer, and get you on Hannity and Colmes.
Art,
I think it's like Tom said, you can segregate, but just pony up the dough and everything's good.
Tom's points about keeping our open spaces and building up our cities as places where people want to live is very similar to what Schundler was talking about in 2001.
Lugar96
Eric,
Kudos to you for throwin down, my good man!
One thing I dislike about county level politics is most of the discussions are about gossip and jobs.
Bring up policy and suddenly your a kill joy ruining everyone's good time.
I think that's why nerdy wonks like you and I gravitate toward places like Art's site.
Gives us a chance to test our theories and our rhetoric.
Don't lose the fire you have there, Eric.
You're a good man.
Art,
Absolutely there should be a federal Civil Rights suit to attack the 1996 State ruling that segregated Asbury's School by race.
I've encouraged it for years. I'd do it pro bono, but half my work in AP is pro bono whether I wanted it to be or not ;-)
I couldn't take on something that big for free.
The problem is, who else will push it? The rich folks who will have to send their kids back to AP?
The poor folks who will lose $60 million in Abbott money yearly?
No.
What it will take is an outsider. Some of those huge firms with 500 lawyers have pro bono departments.
The only shot there is would be to have one of them get interested.
Just reverse that ruling, and NJ has one less Abbott district.
You would think someone, somewhere, would push to get that suit filed.
You would think someone, somewhere, would push to get that suit filed.
Or make it a political issue.
Can you really blame people, white or black for not wanting to send their kids to schools like Asbury Park. It has nothing to do with race it has to do with economics. middle class blacks don't want their kids going there any more then white folk do and nobody wants their kids going to all white Keansburg schools either.
Even economics is not the cause but a symptom of an attitude.
An attitude that doesn,t value education or hard work or personal responsibility. When the majority culture in those towns changes the educational system will succeed, Sending a couple of kids from more affluent towns there will not solve the problem and niether will throwing money at it. It all boils down to the culture in the home and the community.
Oh and BTW Republicans will not succeed in Asbury Park until the culture changes because what Republicans stand for is an anathma to the prevailing culture
Son of Liberty,
I don't think you are grasping the history of the problem in AP.
I'm not talking about taking white kids who don't belong in the district and bussing them in to make the school better.
The reverse happened.
They took the white kids who do live in the district, and bused them away.
If you want to send your kid to a private school, you have my support.
That isn't what happened here.
They put the white kids on a bus and sent them away, leaving just the black kids behind.
That's state sponsored racial segregation, and its highly illegal.
No one in AP will complain about it because they are swimming in that $60 million of your tax money you send over every year.
I know you don't support social engineering by way of busing.
You are too good of a Republican to believe in that.
Tom,
Who took the white kids and bussed them away?
Was it some giant hand that reached out of the sky and removed them?
Son of Liberty,
You don't get to go to just any public high school you feel like. You have to go to the one in the town where you live or in your district.
From Belmar to Deal plus Interlaken were all in the Asbury Park school district for 100 years.
They still are.
But in 1996 the Commish let them get on a bus and go out of their district, miles away to another Public High School in a completely different district - Red Bank.
Since aid to the schools is based upon the incomes of the families going there, AP became an instant needy district.
It's an Abbott because of that.
Bring those kids back home and it won't qualify as an Abbott.
I'm sure everyone wants to get rid of an Abbott and save $60 million a year.
Thats right. He let them. Anyone can go to any public high school in the state as long as they pay tuition to do it if it is outside their district.
I don't blame those people for wanting their kids out of Asbury and not because Asbury is Black its because of the culture of the community the kids come from.
The answer to Abbott is not forced economic intergration. Thats not fair to the kids who want to go to a safe school where education is highly valued by the majority.
Son of Liberty,
There's nothing wrong with the culture in Asbury Park. I'm from there. My sweet Irish mother still lives there.
The white kids families don't pay tuition to go to Red Bank.
If someone did pay tuition to go to another public high school, they wouldn't be given a bus, either.
Why are you talking about "forced integration."
This was "forced segregation."
Asbury Park is STILL the home district to these white kids.
But there they go in the bus every morning to a different High School, with the Black kids segregated.
I thought we Republicans were against "busing" going way back.
Can't believe a good Republican like you would support it.
Think it through.
You don't support busing or segregation.
If you put those towns in the Asbury district familys who could not afford to send their kids to private school would simply move. Probably to Wall where you live.
Those towns were taken out of the Asbury district because that is what they chose nobody forced it on them. Your Forced segregation argument does not hold water. I am all in favor of busing when it is voluntary. BTW i believe those students actually have a choice they could attend Asbury or RBR.
So forcing those kids to go to Asbury will not help Asbury and it will hurt those towns.
If there is nothing wrong with the culture in Asbury then why are the schools so bad? Dare I ask why you do not live there anymore if it is so wonderful.
Abbott districts are a perfect example of a problem that state and federal government is incapable of fixing. The solutions need to come from the local level with the support of the community. That applies to all the Abbot Districts wether white or black. Bringing race into it is just a way for communities to avoid responsibility for the mess.
Neither attempts at forced intergration (yes that is what it will be)or throwing money at it will fix the problems.
I think you need to "think it through"
Son of Liberty,
You are still using the wrong facts.
They did not "change the district."
The district for those towns is still Asbury Park.
100% of the students are bused out of their own district (at great public cost).
Do your analysis again with the correct facts.
It is forced segregation. They did not even bother to change the school district designation.
The bottom line is you've lost your right to complain about Abbott money.
I've offered you a simple way to save $60 million a year - overturn the 1996 ruling. Asbury is no longer and Abbott.
Can you really say no to that and still complain about the Abbott money?
Tom,
Stop it. I'm begging you. I know you are not that dense.
How they wound up going to a different school is irrelevant. They do not go to Asbury Park because their parents do not want them too. Whatever the procedure the govt. used to accomplish that is irrelevant. It was not forced segregation it was a response to what those communities wanted.
Not forcing those kids that go to a school that does not perform and is in a gang ridden community does not mean I give up my right to complain about the state throwing money down a rathole.
Even if you could force those kids to go there (and you can not because their parents would either send them to private schools or flee to other towns) while it might change the demographics enough to do away with the Abbott designation it would do nothing to improve that school or help the minoritys that attend it. Niether that or money solves the problem.
At the risk of boring the s--t out of everyone I will say it one more time. Change must come from the community. It must come from the bottom not the top.
I think maybe Asbury is starting to get that because I think their mentoring program is a great start.
If what you are spouting is really your solution to the problem you just lost my vote if you ever run for office.
Son of Liberty,
You said twice "it does not matter how the government accomplished it."
You can't possibly be that under-read on Constitutional Law, can you?
If the Federal Lawsuit is filed I pray you are the chief witness for the State.
Governement can act so long as it is not acting contrary to the Constitution (our shield of individual rights).
There are limits to government power - and thank God for that - it is precisely why I am a Republican, because my party is supposed to believe in that.
If the parents don't want their kids in the district, their answer is exactly as you say - don't live in the district.
The answer is not a government action of racial segregation.
Here is the part that I don't believe you are thinking through:
If you allow busing to take kids out of a district, you open the door to busing to put kids in a district.
Now isn't that exactly what our good Republican forefathers fought so hard against in the 60's and 70's?
Democrats have no standards. They will be for something until it is perceived as against one of their interest and then they change the standard.
Republicans don't do that.
I assume you are like me and the rest of the party: We are against government action to pull white kids out of their home district, to send them to a black district, to acheive racial equality. Kids are not social experiments.
If you agree with the above, then if you HAVE STANDARDS, you must be against pulling white kids out of their home district, creating racial inequality. The black kids aren't social experiments either.
When Asbury Park High was integrated, it did perform well. We had kids going to Harvard, Air Force Acadamy, etc. not that long ago. Not so since the 1996 segregation.
I doubt I'll ever run for office.
If you aren't a smart enough Republican to stand with the party againt busing, and against segregation I wouldn't want your vote.
If we apply your standards we will be busing kids from your town against their will into Neptune and Long Branch to create racial balance in thoses schools.
That's what happends when you don't have standards.
If you are so "dense" that you wouldn't get rid of the State's MOST EXPENSIVE ABBOTT DISTRICT by simply overturning a ruling, then I'd insist on not having your vote.
So I'll leave you with this:
Don't be late with my $60 million check.
Get a second job to pay it if you have to.
Did I mention we have not one but 2 Superintendants making $600 a day (what a waste of your money!!! I love it!!!!)
Don't be late with my $60 million check. In fact, get your elderly parents and your kids jobs if you have to, to pay for it.
It's going to be more than $60 million next year, so start saving.
I'll be surfing.
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