Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Democratic Surge?

NJ Democrats continue to make much of the surge in new Democratic voter registration.

Blue Jersey has a post today pointing out that statewide there have been 512,508 new Democratic registrations, a 42% increase, since December. Much of the surge came from unaffiliated voters who now represent 42% of the state's electorate, down from 54%.

In Monmouth County, Democrats have made much of the fact that they now hold a 10,000 voter lead over Republicans.

While Democrats have something to be optimistic about, I'm not so sure their glee is justified.

Certainly the increase in D registrations are due to that fact that voters wanted to participate in the February presidential primary, which Hillary Clinton carried with 55% of the vote. If the Democratic surge was Obama supporters, they didn't carry the day. Some of the surge is undoubtedly those who specifically registered to vote against Obama. Will they vote for him in November?

It remains to be seen if New Jersey voters are really changing their voting patterns, or if they simply wanted to participate in the competive presidential primary.

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