James Carville's company, Democracy Corps, commissioned a poll that indicates that Chris Christie in leading Jon Corzine in the gubernatorial race by 5%, 40-35, with Independent Chris Daggett at 10%. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.
Given that the recent independent polls, Quinnipiac, Monmouth/Gannett, and Rasmussen have had Christie at over 50%, it would be easy to dismiss this poll. Daggett gets 10% of the vote with only 18% name recognition? That is hard to believe.
Question 20 of the poll is very interesting. The pollster asked the voters if they consider themselves conservative, moderate or liberal, in political terms. Surprisingly to me, 19% identified themselves as liberal, 41% as moderate and 35% as conservative. With those numbers, New Jersey should be a Red State. Yet, we consistently vote Democratic.
On the question of partisanship, 24% identified themselves as strong Democrat, 13% weak Democrat and 9% Independent-lean Democrat. 16% said they were strong Republican, 11% weak Republican and 10% Independent-lean Republican. 15% said they are Independent.
These numbers would seem to indicate that moderates identify more with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party by a significant margin and that conservatives are not wed to the Republicans.
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