Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Quinnipiac Poll Is Crushing News For Corzine, Democrats

You wouldn't know it by reading the Star Ledger account of the Quinnipiac poll, as I did when I wrote the post below.

Read the poll release direct from Quinnipiac. This is crushing news for Democrats.

Corzine Losing Battle Of Attack Ads In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Democrat Trails Christie By 10 Points

Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine is losing the battle of the attack ads in his campaign for reelection and now trails Republican challenger Christopher Christie 47 - 37 percent among likely voters, with 9 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 46 - 40 percent Christie lead, with 7 percent for Daggett, in an August 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Corzine leads 74 - 15 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 7 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 86 - 8 percent among Republicans, with 4 percent for Daggett, and 46 - 30 percent among independent voters, with 16 percent for Daggett.

As is usually the case, this is a race for the independent voter, and the independent voters are immune to the mud that Corzine is throwing at Christie. Corzine is in the unenviable position of having to convince his base that he deserves another term and win over independents.

But that is not the worst news for Democrats:

"Voters also say 46 - 40 percent they would rather have the Republican Party in control of the State Legislature after the November election."

Gerrymandered districts will likely keep the Assembly in Democratic control, but the Republicans should pick up seats in swing districts. It wouldn't surprise me if Republican get more votes in legislative races statewide, especially if turnout is low in the Democratic districts.

Though it is legally still possible, it is probably practically too late for the Democrats to replace Corzine on the ballot. It would be interesting to see how the public financing system would work in such a scenario, but we probably won't find out.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Watch the Dems try to pull a "Torricelli".

Remember the late-in-the-game switcheroo to Lautenberg?

Hey, all bets are off when the going gets rough.