Sunday, June 06, 2010
Little in 6, Sipprelle in 12. Because This Is the Year We CAN Take BOTH Seats
BOTH Frank Pallone and Rush Holt CAN be beat this year IF we choose the right candidates on Tuesday.
Anna Little in the CD-6 and Scott Sipprelle in CD-12 are the best candidates and the right candidates.
Both are articulate, intelligent and highly competent. Both are passionate, principled and uncompromising on matters of principle. Both are independent, in thought and deed. Both are committed to winning.
Both have their weaknesses. Little can't match Diane Gooch's money. Sipprelle needs to work on his presentation such that he comes off less wonkish and more relatable. Both have demonstrated that they will overcome those weaknesses.
Little and Sipprelle are the strongest candidates to top the tickets in their respective communities and to create coat tails for the county and municipal races.
Both Little and Sipprelle have the potential to be significant national leaders in their respective areas of expertise, Little on Immigration, Sipprelle on the economy, should we send them to Washington.
Would we even be having this conversation if not for Mickey Gooch's money?
Of course not.
Unfortunately, unlike Scott Sipprelle who is also the establishment's choice because of his money, Diane Gooch has not demonstrated that she is a credible candidate during the course of the primary campaign.
That the CD-6 primary is even a competitive race is indication enough that Gooch cannot beat Frank Pallone. If she can't bury Anna Little, who has made the race competitive with very little money, how can anyone honestly expect that Gooch will force Frank Pallone to spend down his war chest in the fall? The cynical rationale for the Gooch candidacy, that she will force Pallone to spend his money, has been exposed as a fallacy during this primary campaign. If you don't believe that, you must believe that Anna Little is more popular than Frank Pallone. Either way, Little is the better choice.
Frank Pallone will have to spend more money defending his seat against Anna Little, than he would have to spend against Diane Gooch.
Mickey and Diane Gooch are wonderful people. Their success in business is to be respected. Their generosity in the community is to be admired.
But in an election, their money is no match for Anna Little's talent. Their money is not a match for the Anna's ability to communicate, her passion, intellect, principles and message.
Anna Little has run a remarkable primary campaign. With extremely limited resources she has excited the grassroots and scared the establishment.
She is an unabashed conservative constitutionalists who is well liked and respected even by those who abhor her ideology. She appeals to the poor, the middle class and the wealthy. She appeals to conservatives, liberals and moderates. She's just damn appealing.
She has attracted the attention of conservatives nationally who are closely watching this race. Should she win on Tuesday, money will not be a problem for her in the general election.
The type of campaign Little has run in this primary is reminiscent of Christie's general election campaign last year, as I wrote on Friday. The similarities don't stop there. Like Christie, Little is likable, articulate, principled and uncompromising. Like Christie, Little was rejected by her party establishment after a tumultuous term as Freeholder bucking the bosses. Like Christie, she did not stop making a difference after the rejection.
In 10 years of working with Little, I have learned never to underestimate her. I won't be shocked if she wins on Tuesday. I've seen her do this before.
Anna Little will easily unite the Tea Party grassroots and the regular party grassroots. If she wins, both groups will have elected her. It is the combination of her historical popularity and respect and the new Tea Party enthusiasts that will put her over the top if she wins. The establishment power brokers will either come around or become irrelevant.
The establishment does not have much of a track record anyway. Forrester, Estabrook, Unaue... Gooch will just be another name on the list.
Should Gooch win on Tuesday, a merger of the Tea Party and regular Republicans will be more difficult. Anna will call, and keep calling for the Tea Party activists to support Gooch. They may reluctantly do so, like the establishment will reluctantly support Little should she win, but the enthusiasm will be very difficult to generate, especially given how Gooch has avoided the Tea Parties throughout the nomination process.
There are many party regulars, elected and grassroots, who know that Little is the best candidate, but who have withheld their support because of Gooch's money. Little being on TV and radio this weekend, on FoxNews, 101.5, WOR, WABC, WINS, should alleviate those concerns. Anna Little is about to be outspent 10-1 and win.
Anna Little won't need $4 million to beat Frank Pallone. Frank Pallone will need to spend more against Anna Little than he will against Diane Gooch. After he spends it, he'll lose and become a lobbyist.
You know I'm right. Do the right thing. No one will know what you do behind the curtain.
I have come to really like Scott Sipprelle a great deal. Regular readers will appreciate that if Scott can win me over, I think he stands a great chance of winning over the hearts and minds of the CD-12 voters.
When Scott called me the week after Mike Halfacre dropped out of the race I told him that I didn't want to hurt him, but that I was not passionate about helping him. He told me that I had damaged my credibility by the way I covered the contest for the party lines between him and Halfacre. "So then why are you calling me?," was my snarky response. I finally scored in our battle of snark.
Since then I have become passionate about helping Scott. He is in this for the right reasons. He is the real deal looking to make a difference for the future of our country. That difference is badly needed.
Endorsing Scott in the primary is a no brainer, even if I didn't like him personally. He has no serious competition, yet he is working the district as if he is behind.
The Republican establishment got lucky with Sipprelle. They would have given the nomination to anyone without a criminal record who was willing to spend $1 million of their own money against Holt. Fortunately, a smart,articulate, hard working, competent, determined man of high integrity stepped up.
Given how articulate he is, Scott has the potential to be a great communicator as he "lets it hang out." The more he "lets it hang out" the more fun he will have and the better candidate he will become.
Scott Sipprelle is going to beat Rush Holt.
Together They Are Better
Sipprelle and Little together on the top of the tickets is the best possible combination for down the line Republicans in Monmouth and Middlesex counties.
I know it is unusual, if not unheard of, for congressional campaigns to openly cooperate, but key communities of CD 6 and CD 12 are intertwined by gerrymandering that favors Democrats. It might make sense for the candidates to work together in those communities.
Sipprelle will need to win the Monmouth county portions of CD-12 by 20% or more to overcome Holt's natural advantage in Mercer. Little can help Sipprelle do that.
Sipprelle can help Little by turning over his donor list of people who have maxed out but would contribute more if they could.
They would work well together on the issues and the message. They have different areas of expertise, both of tremendous importance to the voters.
On Tuesday, vote for Anna Little if you live in CD-6. Vote for Scott Sipprelle if you live in CD-12. Encourage your friends and family in both districts to do the same.